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GQG Partners, the New York–based asset manager with roughly $166 billion (₹15 trillion) AUM, is positioning for a rebound in India. Today, we explain more.
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Macro
Gold rose 65 percent and silver 147 percent; domestic investors keep buying them regardless. ETF and physical inflows continue to rise with ETFs rising more than 3x since the end of 2024. News cycles are also dominated constantly by small price fluctuations in the metals.
A small concession on Harley-Davidson motorcycles opened the door for auto components. Harleys are already prohibitively expensive, and now the $13 billion (₹1.2 trillion) of auto exports to the US are going to be taxed at 0-2.5 percent. The rupee has also strengthened significantly against Asian peers in the last 2 weeks, making India a frontrunner for exports.
After promising to increase imports of US energy, India is still waiting for the best prices.India imports 25 million tons of LNG but that could jump 4x if the goal to have gas as 15 percent of its energy mix versus 6 percent comes true. US delegations met with Indian corporates last week at the Goa conference to discuss this very transition.
Equities
Asics expects to grow 35 percent annually in India for 5 years though running apparel as a whole is growing at 7.7 percent. The supercharged growth stems from growing awareness of health and running. A recent Mumbai marathon saw 69,000 runners with 33 percent of them sporting the Asics’ A on their feet.
A report saying Adani imported Iranian oil caused an American probe into the company. Shares fell 3.5 percent though the company reported that it fully cooperated with authorities and denied all allegations.
Adani Energy got a $750 million (₹67.9 billion) dollar-loan from 2 Japanese banks.It is for 5 years and priced at 200 basis points above SOFR. Proceeds are going to fund a new high voltage, direct current transmission project, carrying solar power from Rajasthan to Uttar Pradesh.
Alts
India is trying to tax Jane Street's profits under capital gains. Currently, they are exempt from that tax due to a treaty with Singapore allowing privileges for trading firms.
Carlyle bought a majority stake in Nido Home Finance for $232 million (₹21 billion). Nido provides home financing loans with branches serving 800 sub-districts. They acquired a 45 percent stake pending regulatory approval.
Solar cell imports from China have become 10-15 percent more expensive due to silver prices. Export tax rebates have also ended which caused prices to rise. Manufacturers have few choices but to delay their projects or choose to eat the additional cost and pass it on to the consumer.
Policy
The coast guard seized 3 tankers operating as a 'dark fleet' in oil smuggling. This is the first Indian action against those ships and serves as an example of how India is pushing back against illicit imports. All 3 ships are reportedly tied to the Iranian oil trade.
Upcoming elections will decide if Bangladesh allies itself closer to China or returns as an Indian ally. The most stable outcome for India is if the old guard (the Bangladesh National Party) wins which is being seen as the largest bloc in the 300 seat Parliament. If the youth movement wins out, any outcome becomes unpredictable for New Delhi.
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Why One $166B Investor Is Buying India’s Slump
Indian equities are having one of their worst relative stretches in decades — and that’s exactly why some investors are buying. GQG Partners, the New York–based asset manager with roughly $166 billion (₹15 trillion) AUM, is positioning for a rebound led by banks and infrastructure-linked companies. The crux of the argument is that the recent slowdown in earnings and capital flows reflects a temporary occurrence.
Corporate profit growth, which cooled over the past 5 quarters from tariffs, rupee volatility, and AI investments, should recover to the mid-teens. That outlook contrasts with the stance of many foreign investors, who collectively withdrew $22 billion (₹2 trillion) from Indian equities over the past 13 months amid soft earnings and geopolitical friction. GQG, by contrast, maintains a sizable allocation to the country due to its conviction in India’s long-term growth trajectory relative to other EM countries.
A look at the firm’s positioning reveals a familiar investment set. Large private and state-run lenders such as ICICI Bank and State Bank of India feature prominently, reflecting expectations that industry-wide credit improvement and asset quality should allow financials to act as a leading indicator for a broader market recovery. Telecommunications and infrastructure-adjacent names like Bharti Airtel and Bharat Heavy Electricals also form part of the thesis from multi-year demand and contractual revenue streams.
GQG’s willingness to lean into controversy has precedent. Its high-profile purchase of Adani-group shares in 2023, shortly after a short-seller report triggered a steep selloff, ultimately generated outsized gains even as the firm’s broader fund performance has remained closer to peer averages over longer horizons. The episode reinforces the manager’s emphasis on forward earnings power rather than near-term sentiment.
For everyday investors, the lesson all lies in earnings accelerating. While global investors are getting sheepish on expensive technology stocks, global money should come back to India which continues to compound at 8+ percent.
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Written by Yash Tibrewal. Edited by Shreyas Sinha.
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Disclaimer: This is not financial advice or recommendation for any investment. The Content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.