📰Trump's Going to India | Daily India Briefing

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Today, we break down Trump’s announcement that he’ll be visiting India.

If you have any questions about India, fill out this form or reach out to Shreyas at [email protected]

Macro

• India is trying to avoid a sugar supply glut by raising export quotas. The government could allow for 1.5 million tons of exports next year (50 percent higher than this year) which will likely weigh further on global prices. Suppliers are asking for 2 million tons before Brazil is able to start exporting later in the spring, to take advantage of higher prices. 

• India’s unemployment rate drops to 5.2 percent in the July-September quarter. The decline was largely driven by an uptick in rural employment because of the farming season, and female workforce participation rose to 33.7 percent from 33.4 percent.

Equities

• Lenskart opened down 12 percent after debuting on the exchange. The valuation ended up being proven as fair since the shares drifted slightly back towards the original price. While long-bias retail and institutional traders will feel burned, anchors and early investors still earned money from the IPO.

• Goldman Sachs upgrades India to ‘overweight,’ predicts Nifty could rise 14 percent in 2026.The Wall Street titan reversed its downgrade in October after citing strong corporate earnings. The Nifty is up 8.5 percent YTD, worse than previous years and other emerging equity markets.

Alts

• OpenAI announced its $4.50 (Rs.399) Go plan will be free for a year. This follows other companies like Bharti, Jio, and Google offering free extended trials of their premium AI agents in India. This further vindicates India as the next main AI battleground. 

• India is limiting solar power building due to a lack of transmission and energy storage.Existing cells are being limited on average by 12 percent with a peak of 40 percent. There is also 44 GW of clean energy that has no state utilities offering to purchase, causing more potential energy project cancellations. 

Policy

• A Brazilian hairdresser’s photo is central to claims of election fraud across the country. The hairdresser’s photo was used for at least 20 voting IDs, which underscored Rahul Gandhi’s argument that the BJP was working with the Election commission to swindle elections.

• A car explosion near the Red Fort in Delhi has heightened security country wide. The explosion occurred with a slow moving car at a red light. Home Minister Amit Shah said all possibilities were being considered; there are heightened security in all neighboring states and within all city exit points as well.

• India’s government proposes requiring e-commerce websites to allow customers to filter products by ‘country of origin.’The move is part of the government’s effort to promote self-reliance by encouraging Indian consumers to buy from Indian producers.

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Surprise: Trump’s Going to India

Trump announced he has accepted an invitation to visit Modi in New Delhi, a dramatic turn from his anti-India stance over the last few months, which itself was a dramatic turn from his pro-India stance during his first term.

Wait, what’s happening? In his first term, Trump lauded his close ties with India’s leader while his administration worked to deepen ties with India to build it as an American-allied economic and geopolitical counterweight to neighboring China. However, after the brief India-Pakistan conflict that followed a terrorist attack in Kashmir, Trump tilted toward Pakistan, meeting directly with its military chief after Modi declined to credit him for securing peace between the two countries. Since then, Trump has imposed the highest tariffs of any nation on India, about 50 percent.

BTW: This is the second time Trump has been invited during his second term, the first being earlier this year after inauguration when Modi visited the White House in February. 

Deal or no deal? Trump has hinted that the meeting is a step forward towards a trade deal between the two nations: he said on social media that Modi was winding down Russian oil imports, a crucial point of contention for the White House, and spoke to the media about an impending trade deal.

But, it seems India is on a different page. Various politicians in India have also disagreed with American claims on oil imports. While some Indian officials have indicated that a trade deal is coming, others including the Minister of Commerce Piyush Goyal have sent mixed signals by saying the country won’t be pressured into finalizing any agreement. Indians still feel burned by Trump’s trade sanctions, which threatened to force the country into recession by one of its closest allies without clear reasoning. India has increasingly shown an interest in deepening ties with Russia and China; tomorrow, a large delegation of Indian exporters will start a four-day visit to Moscow. Putin also plans to visit Modi in New Delhi next month.

The U.S. has long held a special place in the Indian imagination, with real prestige attached to working at American companies or studying at American universities. But in just a few months, much of that enthusiasm has leaked away. If Trump can make the most of what remains, and rebuild some goodwill, he can regain a pivotal partner on the other side of the world..

See you tomorrow.

Written by Eshaan Chanda & Yash Tibrewal. Edited by Shreyas Sinha.

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