📰Trump's Ceasefire, Stocks Climb, PVR Grows Movie Industry

Good evening, 

Welcome to the best way to stay up-to-date on India’s financial markets. Today, we’re discussing

• Breaking down Trump’s ceasefire announcement between India-Pakistan

• How Indian and Asian markets reacted to the ceasefire announcement,

• and Netflix reveals strong growth in India.

Then, we close with Gupshup, a round-up of the most important headlines.

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—Shreyas, [email protected]

Market Update.

Trump Announces a Ceasefire.

On Saturday, after four days of the most intense India–Pakistan clashes in half a century, Trump abruptly announced a “FULL AND IMMEDIATE CEASEFIRE” on Truth Social. The declaration took many in New Delhi by surprise. In upstaging Modi’s own efforts to manage the crisis, Trump inadvertently undermined India’s longstanding insistence that the Kashmir dispute be resolved exclusively through bilateral dialogue.  By putting both nuclear-armed rivals on an equal footing, his intervention risked validating Pakistan’s narrative of parity and tactical success.

Behind the scenes, Indian and Pakistani officials had already been pursuing back-channel de-escalation.  Vance, then in India for diplomatic engagements, placed a direct call to Modi urging restraint; Marco Rubio subsequently spoke with both Modi and Pakistan’s army chief, General Asim Munir; and the two Directors General of Military Operations finally agreed to halt strikes. Yet it was Trump’s headline-seizing post that broke the logjam, prompting jubilant celebrations in Pakistan even as New Delhi bristled at the implied equivalence.

Swift Indian backlash. Nationalist media figures with ties to Modi condemned Trump’s overreach and accused him of equating the April 22 massacre in Pahalgam, which killed 26 civilians, with India’s measured military response. Opposition politicians saw it as a fresh affront to Indian sovereignty, rallying against any third-party mediation in Kashmir. Diplomatically, India refused to credit Washington for brokering the ceasefire and declined to revive the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty.

Beyond the immediate diplomatic snub, the recent hostilities have rewritten the rules of engagement along the India-Pakistan frontier.  Strikes have extended well beyond the LoC, targeting airbases and infrastructure near major cities with kamikaze drones and Chinese-made fighter jets on both sides. Both capitals likely believe that only swift, decisive action will deter their rival, while Pakistan’s military sees every escalation as proof of its deterrent potency. In this new environment, any future skirmish risks rapid escalation and is likely to be far more destructive. Essentially, Trump’s short-term intervention may make the next confrontation even harder to contain.

The bigger picture: India made its largest incursions into Pakistan since 1971, revealing an emboldened country far more willing to take risks and show military strength than in years prior. India’s economy is now 11 times the size of Pakistan's, and is in the good graces of the United States across presidential administrations. Moreover, Pakistan flew jets and missiles provided by the Chinese government, making the conflict seem like a “proxy war” between the U.S. and China, whose relations are at their worst in recent history, as per Foreign Policy chief Ravi Agarwal.

It is unclear if the White House played any significant role in ending the conflict—continuing fighting was in neither India nor Pakistan’s interest—and if the ceasefire will be able to hold long-term, as the two countries continue to have unresolved, clashing priorities on Kashmir.

Next steps: Modi says the pause in fighting is only “temporary,” and that India plans to retaliate on its own terms if any acts of terrorism occur in the country. Shortly after the ceasefire announcement, accusations of violations began emerging on social media, though analysts find the peace agreement to hold for now.

South Asian Stocks Start Climbing.

On Friday, India’s benchmark Nifty 50 had tumbled more than 1 percent while the rupee lagged all Asian peers. Pakistan’s KSE-30 fared even worse, plunging 9 percent as cross-border shelling and public warnings of further escalation unnerved investors. Bond yields in both markets also spiked, reflecting a spike in risk premia that only aggressive central-bank interventions could partially offset.

The new ceasefire’s effects: A surprise Trump ceasefire pulled both armies from the brink, leading to a Nifty 3.8 percent rebound on Monday and Pakistan rallying 9.3 percent. The rupee jumped 1 percent while Pakistani bonds, normally trading distressed, outperformed all EM names, jumping over 5 percent.

The ceasefire reduced the odds of a prolonged, high-intensity war. Additionally, calmer bilateral relations helped investors focus on the underlying fundamentals. India is still the fastest-growing large nation on the planet. Pakistan now has reduced interest rates and a new $1 billion (₹84.9 billion) IMF loan disbursement. Of course, a 90-day reprieve on US-China tariffs also led to the market rally. 

Some uncertainty: India has yet to restore the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, and both sides have already accused each other of ceasefire violations.  Reports of fresh skirmishes within hours of the truce may signal fragility in the agreement.  Should hostilities flare again, equities and bonds could swiftly retrace much of Monday’s gains.

A sustained calm should point to India’s foreign inflow momentum, plus tariff relief talks. The RBI is also much more accommodative, while monsoon forecasts seem to be more positive. With those factors coming back into play, the recent ceasefire has granted the markets a much-needed break from volatility. The only risk is the past India-Pakistan cyclicality: rapid escalation, brief panic, a tenuous truce, and then vigilance against the next flare.

PVR’s Plan to Grow the Movie Industry.

PVR Inox, India’s largest multiplex operator, is banking on a slate of high-profile Hollywood and Bollywood releases to reverse a downturn in moviegoers. In the past fiscal year, overall admissions fell nearly 10 percent amid a broader consumption slowdown. Revenues across the platform fell by 5.4 percent, dragging revenues down 5.4 percent to $680.8 million (₹57.8 billion) and widening losses to $33 million (₹2.8 billion).  

Mainstream Bollywood offerings underperformed, with box-office sales plummeting 26 percent on a dearth of marquee titles, while Hollywood receipts also softened due to fewer major releases and residual effects of the US writers’ strikes.

New diversification: Against this backdrop, PVR is aggressively diversifying its content mix. Regional language films now account for 32 percent of ticket sales, and Hindi-dubbed South Indian blockbusters have more than doubled their share, compensating for the lull in Bollywood franchises. Looking ahead, the chain expects heavyweight titles across Hollywood and Bollywood in the summer to rekindle consumer enthusiasm. PVR’s leadership believes fiscal 2026 could be a turnaround for that reason.

Live-streaming and growth: PVR is exploring live-streamed concerts and bidding for international touring artists’ streaming rights to broaden its revenue base. The company also plans to expand its footprint with 100–120 new screens annually, targeting underserved markets in southern India and Punjab. While the near-term success of these strategies hinges on the strength of the upcoming release calendar, the pivot toward regional content and experiential offerings underscores the evolving preferences of Indian audiences.

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Gupshup.

Macro

• Pharma stocks dropped globally after Trump announced 30-80% cuts on US drug prices. Global manufacturers enjoy higher selling prices when selling to the US, making this move extremely detrimental to them. In particular, India provides over 20 percent of the US’s generic drug supply.  

Equities

• Tata Steel beats profits due to improving margins. Consolidated net profit is now $153.3 million (₹13 billion) after a one-time expense related to a closure in Odisha rolled off. The company also has positive sentiment after India imposed a 12 percent steel tariff to help domestic mills, which boosts the company’s prospects. 

• Apple considers raising its iPhone prices in the wake of Indian and Chinese tariffs. Although the company wants to move all US production to India, the process will take several years, which could necessitate hikes in the short term. This news comes after the US slashed reciprocal tariffs but left a 30 percent import duty on China earlier this morning.  

• ​​Ather Energy, another e-scooter company, reported a $28 million (₹2.3 billion) loss. While the loss is not positive, this represents a shrinking loss compared to past quarters due to limited costs and a growing distribution network. The CEO reported that an improvement in margins occurred due to software-related cost reduction.

Alts

• China's Ant Group is selling a 4% stake in Paytm for $242 million (₹20.5 billion). Ant is a SubCo of Alibaba, though the buyers have not been identified yet. This continues an institutional selling streak after Berkshire Hathaway and SoftBank also sold stakes in the fintech payments service. 

• Gensol Engineering's MD Jaggi resigned amid a regulatory order. SEBI banned the founders of Gensol to still manage the company because of diversion of funds from the company towards luxury purchases, which were used to offset taxes.  

• Virat Kohli and Rohit Sharma both retired from test cricket. The two players are some of India’s most decorated in the international format.  

• India is extending a $50 million (₹4.2 billion) credit facility to the Maldives. The State Bank of India extended the facility to keep their friendship, but most importantly, vie for control of the Indian Ocean with China. China and India are the Maldives’ biggest creditors, making the financing argument huge for control.  

Policy

• Trump wants to help both Pakistan and India with trade agreements. He implied that the temporary ceasefire that he “enacted” was due to the trade leverage he has with both countries.  

• The Indian army said that India and Pakistan's military officials were discussing next steps after the weekend ceasefire. As of now, sources reported that banning flights and trade was still going to be enforced, so all discussion has centered on fighting. India has also reopened 32 airports near the border and reported that all military bases, though some sustained damage, were still operational.

See you Tuesday.

Written by Yash Tibrewal. Edited by Shreyas Sinha.

Disclaimer: This is not financial advice or recommendation for any investment. The Content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.