📰The World’s Largest Universal Basic Income Experiment | Daily India Briefing

Today, we break down the world’s largest Universal Basic Income experiment, happening in India.

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Macro

• 4 out of the 7 large Indian refiners are taking in non sanctioned Russian oil. Nayara, Indian Oil Corp, Bharat Petroleum, and Hindustan Petroleum have all placed orders until January; the 4 accounted for 60 percent of Russian imports this past year. The major company staying out is Reliance which used to be the largest importer of Russian urals.

Equities

• The CEO of Barclays India sees many IPOs as pricing too high, such as Lenskart. The fervor in public markets is causing founders to value the company highly at launch such as Lenskart which priced at several hundred times earnings before falling 12 percent on its debut. Half of the 333 firms that IPOd this year are trading below their listing price. 

• E-commerce platform Meesho jumped 63 percent after its $603 million (₹54.3 billion) IPO. The SoftBank-backed startup is now valued at $9 billion (₹810 billion) continuing a trend of e-commerce IPOs outperforming in India in 2025. Its IPO was subscribed 79x even after many funds walked away when receiving inadequate allocations. 

• Amazon, like Microsoft, raises its Indian investment pledge to $35 billion (₹3.2 trillion) by 2030. Amazon is investing in AI and logistics infrastructure which will quadruple its e-commerce exports from India to $80 billion (₹7.2 trillion) while creating 1 million jobs. 

• The competitive delivery space is being defined by logistical growth and scale. Swiggy is raising $1.1 billion (₹100 billion) while Zepto took on $450 million (₹40.5 billion) of debt ahead of an IPO next year to compete with Amazon, Walmart-backed Flipkart, and Reliance Retail in expanding fleet and warehouse space. 

• Individual investors have dumped $3.3 billion (₹300 billion) of small-cap shares this quarter.The move underscores the 9 percent y-t-d decline in the Nifty Smallcap 250 Index; the selloff is related to lofty valuations with weak earnings growth.

Alts

• American companies partnering with firms like Micro Plastics Pvt to manufacture toys are now bleeding cash. The tariff war with China starting with Biden’s term had companies outsourcing hubs to India, however tariffs have undercut India’s ability to take over plastics manufacturing. 

• Blackrock's infra unit is investing $335 million (₹30.2 billion) in Birla's green energy company.Aditya Birla Renewables has a portfolio of 4.3 GW with the group targeting a buildout towards more than 10 GW by 2030. This is on pace with the broader Indian goal of doubling green energy to 500 GW total by 2030.

Policy

• The Indian airline industry is being highlighted as a duopoly with Indigo and Air India. The group controls 91.3 percent of the industry, with Indigo being 65.6 percent. The government says it will work to increase new entrants into the airline market.

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The World’s Largest Universal Basic Income Experiment

Across India, millions of women are now receiving something unprecedented: no-strings-attached monthly payments simply for being adult women who run households. In states such as Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and West Bengal, women aged roughly 21 to 65 get between $11 to $30 (₹1,000 and ₹2,500) a month directly into their bank accounts. The amount is small, but for many it pays for medicine, food, school fees or emergency expenses.

These transfers have grown rapidly. Twelve states now send regular cash to more than 118 million women, making this one of the biggest experiments in social policy anywhere. Unlike conditional cash-transfer programmes in places like Mexico or Brazil, India’s version requires no proof of school attendance or poverty status. The idea, sometimes stated explicitly and sometimes hinted at, is to acknowledge the invisible labour women perform — cooking, caregiving, and managing households — work that keeps families afloat but rarely earns wages or recognition. Early studies show the payments boost women’s financial autonomy and confidence without discouraging them from seeking paid work.

The support isn’t unanimous. Many deride it as a form of vote buying given that parties that promised women focused transfers won major victories in Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Odisha, Haryana, Andhra Pradesh, and Bihar. In Bihar, the government deposited $111 (₹10,000) into 7.5 million female bank accounts shortly before elections. Women voted in higher numbers than men and played a decisive role in delivering a landslide. 

A 2023 survey in West Bengal found that 90% of women handled their own bank accounts and 86% chose how to use the money. Most spent it on basics like food, school fees, and medical needs. It wasn’t life-changing cash, but the steady payments gave them stability and a sense of control.

See you tomorrow.

Written by Yash Tibrewal. Edited by Shreyas Sinha.

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