📰Re: Competing for Africa

India’s relationship with Africa is older than most bilateral stories ever told.

September 26, 2025

A technical error caused last week’s Friday briefing to re-send today. We’ve updated this newsletter with the correct article. My apologies for the inconvenience.

Africa, a continent of 54 countries and 1.5 billion people, is similar to India in its diversity and size. India’s bilateral story with Africa goes back millennia, and that story has never mattered more than it does today. Today, we investigate India’s role in competing for influence in the African continent.

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Competing for Africa

Cape Town, South Africa

India’s relationship with Africa is older than most bilateral stories ever told. Before there were nation-states, before colonial borders, there were monsoon winds carrying Indian textiles and spices to East African ports and bringing ivory, gold, and slaves in return. Indian merchants settled in Mombasa and Zanzibar centuries before the British and Portuguese carved up trade routes. These flows of commerce and migration stitched together two regions that, though separated by an ocean, felt more like neighbors. When colonial rule arrived, both continents found themselves under similar burdens—foreign extraction, racial hierarchies, and a struggle to modernize on their own terms. That shared history gave India a natural claim to solidarity with Africa in the post-independence era.

In the 1950s and 1960s, Delhi leaned into this solidarity through the Non-Aligned Movement and its anti-colonial diplomacy. Leaders like Nehru, Nkrumah, and Nasser spoke the same language of sovereignty and development. India sent teachers, doctors, and engineers across Africa, offered scholarships for African students to study in Delhi and Mumbai, and extended lines of credit that helped build power plants and textile mills. Unlike Western aid, which often came with conditionalities, India’s message was partnership: we fought colonialism too, and we’ll help you industrialize on your terms. But while the politics resonated, the economics lagged. India’s own poverty and constrained capital meant its influence was built on goodwill, not large-scale finance.

Then came China. Beginning in the early 2000s, Beijing ramped up a new playbook: lend big, build fast, extract resources, and in the process, secure a generation of diplomatic loyalty. China’s Belt and Road Initiative formalized what was already happening: state-backed firms constructing highways, ports, dams, and railways across Africa. Trade exploded, from $10 billion (₹887 billion) in 2000 to over $220 billion (₹19.5 trillion) by the mid-2010s. Today, China is Africa’s single largest trading partner, and it has a stake in everything from Congolese cobalt to Ethiopian railways to Djibouti’s ports. India, by contrast, was left trailing. Its trade with Africa hovers just above $100 billion (₹8.9 trillion), a fraction of China’s, and while Indian companies are present in telecom, IT, and pharma, they lack the scale of Chinese SOEs laying down megaprojects.

The difference isn’t just quantitative, it’s philosophical. China sees Africa as a strategic extension of its industrial and geopolitical perimeter. It doesn’t hesitate to finance infrastructure at unprofitable terms if it secures influence, resources, or access. India, lacking that scale of capital, plays a subtler game: emphasizing local equity, skills transfer, and private-sector partnerships. Instead of railways and airports, India’s exports to Africa skew toward medicines, automobiles, IT services, and agro-machinery. Indian firms are present in telecom networks, small-scale manufacturing, and banking sectors that touch everyday lives. That “people-level” presence gives India an edge in goodwill. But in raw steel and cement, China still wins.

For India, the stakes are not trivial. Africa is more than just a market; it is leverage. A continent with 1.4 billion people, the world’s fastest-growing workforce, and a massive untapped consumer base, Africa could be the swing vote in 21st-century geopolitics. Forty percent of the UN General Assembly are African states; their votes matter in global climate negotiations, WTO battles, and reforms of multilateral institutions. Strategically, African ports along the Indian Ocean, Mombasa, Dar es Salaam, and Djibouti, are gateways to maritime trade that India cannot afford to ignore. Economically, Africa’s demand for affordable drugs, cars, education, and energy matches India’s export profile. If India secures this market, it could fuel decades of growth.

And Africa, for its part, has reasons to turn toward India. Many African governments are growing wary of Chinese debt traps and the political leverage that comes with them. Countries like Zambia and Kenya have struggled with debt repayments to Chinese lenders, sparking backlash against Beijing’s overreach. India, by offering smaller but more sustainable credit lines, positions itself as a friendlier partner. Its democratic governance model and cultural soft power, bolstered by the Indian diaspora in East Africa, resonate with African societies in ways China’s authoritarian approach often does not.

Recent years show India trying to scale its ambitions. In 2024–25, trade with Africa crossed $100 billion (₹8.9 trillion), and Delhi now ranks among the top five foreign investors on the continent. EXIM Bank of India is ramping up export financing to Africa, especially as U.S. tariff pressures push Indian exporters to diversify markets. Indian pharmaceutical companies continue to dominate generics supplied to African health systems. Meanwhile, India has stepped up security cooperation: its navy conducts joint exercises with African counterparts, signaling that the Indian Ocean is not a Chinese lake. Political visits are more frequent—Narendra Modi and senior ministers have toured African capitals with pledges of deeper ties.

Still, Delhi faces hard constraints. Its public finances are stretched, and unlike Beijing, it cannot deploy state-backed capital at scale. Indian firms face stiff competition from Chinese contractors who can deliver turnkey projects backed by sovereign guarantees. Infrastructure diplomacy is a volume game, and India risks being sidelined if it cannot scale. The risk is not just economic but strategic: if China controls the ports and pipelines, it shapes the flows of commerce and influence. India cannot counter that without building its own corridors.

Beyond government-to-government lines of credit, it is India’s private sector that gives the relationship commercial depth. Companies like Bharti Airtel, which bought Zain’s Africa operations in 2010 for $10.7 billion (₹948.8 billion), now serve over 100 million African subscribers and rank among the continent’s top telecom providers. Pharmaceutical firms such as Cipla, Sun Pharma, and Dr. Reddy’s dominate the supply of affordable generics, while Tata Motors and Mahindra supply trucks, buses, and tractors that move African economies on the ground. Infosys, Wipro, and Tech Mahindra are expanding IT and back-office solutions from Nairobi to Johannesburg, and Indian banks like Bank of Baroda provide financing to SMEs. These firms thrive by filling a gap between expensive Western products and large-scale Chinese infrastructure, offering goods and services that are accessible, adaptable, and priced for African markets. Their footprint ensures that even when state-backed capital is limited, India’s economic presence in Africa remains visible and sticky at the consumer level.

But Africa is not a zero-sum board. Its diversity, 54 countries, each with unique needs, means there is room for multiple partners. Where China dominates infrastructure, India can lead in technology, pharmaceuticals, and services. Where China focuses on resource extraction, India can build consumer markets. Where China lends to governments, India can partner with private firms. This complementary angle could allow India to grow its footprint without directly replicating China’s debt-heavy model.

Looking ahead, the trade potential is vast. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal recently sketched the outline: India can supply cars, dairy, IT services, and pharmaceuticals, while importing African gold, diamonds, oil, pulses, and agricultural goods. Africa’s rapidly urbanizing population will need affordable food, housing, mobility, and healthcare—all areas where Indian firms excel. If Africa becomes India’s next big export market, it could rival the importance of the Gulf in India’s trade balance.

The bigger prize, though, is influence. In a multipolar world, Africa is the swing continent. China knows this; India is waking up to it. The contest is not just about contracts and credit lines; it is about narrative, alignment, and soft power. India has history on its side, but China has scale. The next decade will test whether Delhi can turn its historical ties and goodwill into something larger: a real economic and political counterweight to China on the African continent.

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Written by Eshaan Chanda & Yash Tibrewal. Edited by Shreyas Sinha.

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