📰IndiGo Explores Expansion, Trump is Building in India, JD Vance Visiting India

Good afternoon, 

Welcome to the best way to stay up-to-date on India’s financial markets. Here’s what’s in today’s newsletter:

• Trump’s real estate firm is set to extend its footprint in India,

• U.S. Vice President JD Vance is set to visit India for the first time,

• and, IndiGo is gearing up for a bold leap into the long-haul market as it plans to add more direct flights to Europe and Africa.

Then, we close with Gupshup, a round-up of the most important headlines.

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—Shreyas, [email protected]

Market Update.

Trump is Building in India.

Trump’s real estate firm is set to extend its footprint in India with one more residential project, signaling robust demand for luxury housing in the world’s largest nation. This latest endeavor comes barely a month after the company unveiled plans for its inaugural commercial tower in the country, underscoring the Trump Organization’s growing confidence in the Indian market at a time when Washington and New Delhi are engaged in delicate bilateral trade negotiations.

A few controversies: Trump’s restructuring of his business affairs—operational control given to his family and assets put into a trust—has drawn scrutiny from ethicists concerned about the interplay between foreign capital and policy influence. Critics argue these measures have not entirely distanced him from his business empire, sparking debates over whether these intricate financial relationships might ultimately shape policy decisions.

Trump’s enterprise is banking on the resiliency of the luxury segment. The proposed project, known as Trump Residences Gurgaon, will consist of twin 51-story towers housing 298 upscale residences and aims for a staggering $409 million (₹35 billion) in sales revenue. Located in Gurgaon within the National Capital Region, this project is the second Trump-branded residential venture in the city and the fifth across India, marking it as the largest market for the firm outside its home turf.

JD Vance is Also Visiting India.

At the same time, U.S. Vice President JD Vance is set to embark on a week-long tour that underscores Washington’s renewed focus on forging closer trade ties amid President Trump’s aggressive tariff strategy. According to the White House, Vance will begin his journey in Italy, where he is scheduled to meet with Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni in Rome. His visit comes on the heels of Meloni’s own trip to Washington, designed to secure tariff relief for the European Union. From Rome, Vance will then travel to India, where early next week he is expected to hold discussions with Modi in New Delhi as part of ongoing efforts to finalize trade negotiations within six weeks.

A cultural touch: Accompanying Vance on his trip is his wife, second lady Usha Vance — the first Indian-American to hold the role. Their visit is rich in personal and cultural significance: as the family tours Jaipur and Agra, they will also partake in events at important cultural sites, underscoring the deeper bilateral ties between the United States and India.

Vance’s itinerary reflects the broader US strategy to engage closely with key trading partners amid mounting pressure from the recent tariff shock that has hit major economies worldwide. Trump’s decision to impose high tariffs on numerous trading partners sparked a severe market downturn, prompting him to temporarily scale back those measures to allow time for negotiations. Under the current arrangement, a lower tariff rate of 10 percent applies during the 90-day negotiating window, a temporary measure that both Europe and India are eager to extend or modify through definitive trade deals.

During his European leg, Vance is expected to continue projecting his own ideological stance; just months earlier, at the Munich Security Conference, he criticized European leaders for allegedly compromising on free speech and democratic values amid shifts in global security and economic paradigms. Italian PM Meloni, a center-right leader and an ideological ally of the Trump administration, has emerged as a crucial bridge in these transatlantic negotiations. India has become crucial due to trade negotiations as a war with China continues to mount. Modi, like Meloni, has also been receptive and an ally of the Trump admin.

IndiGo Explores Expansion.

The Indian government has given its approval for the purchase of 26 Rafale marine fighter jets from France, a move poised to reinforce the nation’s defense posture at a time when New Delhi is positioning itself as a strategic counterweight to Chinese influence in the Indian Ocean. 

The approval came from a high-powered committee led by Modi, marking a key milestone in an effort to bolster India’s naval capabilities. The deal, valued at $7.4 billion (₹640 billion) encompasses not only state-of-the-art single-pilot jets but also includes four twin-seater trainers and provisions for the maintenance of the 36 Rafale aircraft already in service with India’s air force. Part of the purchase is surprising given that India was supposed to shift purchases towards the US. 

Different allies: The decision aligns with discussions held during Modi’s recent visit to France in 2023, underscoring a deepening relationship with Western allies amid growing regional tensions. Western nations, eager to extend critical technologies and advanced weapon systems, are increasingly courting New Delhi as it seeks alternatives to its long-standing reliance on Russian hardware. From 2020 to 2024, India emerged as the largest buyer of French military equipment, outpacing even traditional defense powers like Qatar — a trend driven in part by sanctions that have dampened Russia’s deliveries. 

This procurement is set to augment the capabilities of a fleet that, in the near future, will be closely integrated with the Indian Navy’s indigenous aircraft carrier, INS Vikrant. While India continues to operate Russian-made MiG-29K fighters on its aircraft carrier, the addition of the Rafale jets is expected to plug critical gaps in the navy’s combat readiness, complementing ongoing efforts to develop homegrown deck-based fighters. As China’s assertiveness in the region intensifies, India’s latest acquisition not only enhances its operational readiness but also signals its determination to modernize its military arsenal through diversified and technologically advanced imports.

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Gupshup.

Macro

• India’s trade deficit with China hit a record $99.2 billion in FY2024- 25, with imports rising to $113.5 billion and exports falling to $14.3 billion, driven by a surge in electronics, batteries, and solar cells. Analysts warn this reflects structural dependence, as Chinese firms increasingly reroute goods to India amid U.S. tariff hikes.

• India is offering cheap loans and dispatching more defense attachés to sell arms to countries that traditionally bought from Russia, aiming to double exports to $6B by 2029. It’s part of a broader push to become a global defense supplier, with EXIM financing deals and Indian artillery shells already seen on Ukraine’s frontlines.

• The Indian rupee rose for a third straight session to close at 85.6775 per dollar on Wednesday, supported by U.S. tariff concerns that weakened the greenback and lifted safe havens like gold and the Swiss franc. Traders cited corporate hedging and global risk aversion, while Indian equities outperformed amid bets that its domestic-focused economy is more resilient to trade shocks.

• India's wheat stocks jumped 57 percent to 11.8 million tons—the highest in three years—while rice reserves hit a record 63.09 million tons as of April 1, exceeding government targets and easing fears of domestic shortages. Strong inventories give India room to curb food inflation and boost rice exports, even if wheat procurement falls short again this year.

Equities

• Paytm CEO Vijay Shekhar Sharma has relinquished 21 million stock options after SEBI flagged them as rule violations tied to his influence as a major shareholder. Sharma had cut his stake from 14.7 percent to 9.1 percent pre-IPO to qualify, but regulators later issued show-cause notices over the grant.

• Wipro forecast a 1.5 percent–3.5 percent revenue drop for April–June, sending U.S.-listed shares down 5 percent as client caution and U.S. tariffs weigh on India's $283B IT sector. CEO Srini Pallia warned of rising uncertainty into FY26, with key segments like auto and industrial hit hardest.

Alts

• India has extended its auction of 13 deep-sea mineral blocks—rich in cobalt, copper, manganese, and nickel—until May 1, marking the second deadline delay amid low participation and lack of local seabed mining expertise. The auction is part of India’s push to secure critical minerals for its energy transition, but faces environmental concerns and protests in Kerala.

Policy

• India is considering scrapping import taxes on U.S. ethane and LPG, worth $10.4B in imports last year, as part of trade talks aimed at narrowing its $45.7B surplus with Washington. The move could boost U.S. energy exports but faces short-term logistical limits on ethane use.

• India’s market regulator SEBI will begin reviewing ESG disclosure rules next month, including a delayed mandate for top firms to report on 75 percent of their supply chains by FY26. The review, prompted by industry concerns, could ease burdens on smaller companies and reflects new chairman Tuhin Kanta Pandey’s push for “optimal regulations.”

See you Thursday.

Written by Yash Tibrewal. Edited by Shreyas Sinha.

Disclaimer: This is not financial advice or recommendation for any investment. The Content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.