📰India's Cricket League Slows Down | Daily India Briefing

Today’s deep dives: India’s cricket league slows down. India and the U.S. aim for a trade deal by next month. India’s corporate bond repo market may soon open its doors to foreign investors.

We want to talk to you! Just respond to this email and we’ll set up a time to learn more about how Samosa Capital can be more helpful in your work.

If you have any questions about India, fill out this form or reach out to Shreyas at [email protected]

Macro

• The RBI is planning on intervening in FX markets to prop up the rupee. The RBI sees recent weakness sending the rupee closer to 89 as speculation. Breaching 89 puts the currency close to 90 which is a technical and psychological barrier. 

• Trade deal optimism and RBI speculation leads to slight rupee recovery. The rupee recovered by 1 percent after trade talks with the US improved and the RBI sold dollars in both off- and onshore markets. Although Governor Malhotra allows for more fluctuation, recent weakness likely prompted a move from him. 

• Brazilian companies are striking more deals with their Indian counterparts due to US pressure. Both companies have come under American ire, leading to hopes that the $12 billion (₹1.1 trillion) bilateral trade between the countries will triple in the coming years. A Brazilian business delegation is currently in New Delhi with several politicians and business leaders as the envoy. 

• There will likely be an increase in FX swaps to boost liquidity.Whenever the RBI sells dollars, they buy them back in a longer tenor (generally 18-months) to ensure proper liquidity for the rupee. Until now, the short dollar book for the RBI had shrunk from $88.8 billion (₹7.8 trillion) in February to $53.4 billion (₹4.7 trillion) now.

Equities

• Fossil India is mulling a $400 million (₹35.2 billion) IPO. The US based luxury watch manufacturer would sell 25 percent of its Fossil India subsidiary. They join Hyundai and LG as global brands spinning off their Indian subsidiaries. 

• There is a massive global push for data centers in India. Google is spending $15 billion (₹1.3 trillion), matching OpenAI and Amazon, over the next 5 years. Expect Reliance, Adani, and Bharti Airtel to benefit the most from these moves in addition to construction, electrical, and power-equipment firms. 

• Steel firms will likely report higher demand but tighter margins.Soft steel prices combined with moderately high coking coal prices will lead to tighter margins. Softer prices will likely lead to reports of higher demand. Non-ferrous firms could escape the tighter margins.

Alts

• Authorities are starting to crackdown on unsafe pharmaceutical practices after Coldrif led to 22 child deaths. The cough syrup caused kidney failure due to having a huge excess of diethylene glycol. India shut the manufacturer down and is increasing testing for all liquid medicine formulations. There has been global pushback against India's lack of regulation with pharma products. 

• Coinbase invests in Mumbai-based CoinDCX at a valuation of $2.5 billion (₹220 billion). The crypto venture represents growing foreign interest in the nascent crypto scene in India. CoinCDX is one of the largest exchanges in India with $141 million (₹11.8 billion) of revenue and 20 million users. 

• India is tightening rules on renewable energy to protect grid stability. Solar and wind producers are going to stick more closely to their supply schedules or face penalties. India has to monitor the gap between scheduled and actual power generation which can cause blackouts.

• India needs $217 billion (₹19.1 trillion) of investment to install 100GW of nuclear energy by 2047.Although lofty, India recently softened requirements for private investment in the sector while also reducing producer liability to just the contract value. Producers will also be allowed to source foreign uranium, making the plans even easier to execute.

Policy

• Pakistan is reporting new clashes with Afghan forces across their border. There have been dozens of deaths on both sides in a border clash that started over the weekend and garnered Trump's attention. Pakistan and Trump's relationship has already improved, though this could serve as a test of that.

Institutional-Grade Opportunities for HNW Investors

Long Angle is a private, vetted community connecting high-net-worth entrepreneurs and executives with institutional-grade alternative investments. No membership fees.

Access top-tier opportunities across private equity, credit, search funds, litigation finance, energy, hedge funds, and secondaries. Leverage collective expertise and scale for better terms.

Invest alongside pensions, endowments, and family offices. With $100M+ invested annually, secure preferential terms unavailable to individual investors.

Apply to Join

Reach out to [email protected] to reach our audience and see your advertisement here.

1. India’s Cricket League Slows Down

The India Premier League, or IPL, one of the world's most valuable sporting properties, has suffered a second year of decline in valuation. There finally seems to be a cooling phase after years of explosive growth fueled by fierce media bidding wars. 

According to a report released October 15 by consulting firm D&P Advisory, the IPL’s total valuation fell nearly 11 percent to $8.8 billion (₹774.7 billion) in 2025, down from $9.9 billion (₹871.2 billion) in 2024 and well below its $11.2 billion (₹985.6 billion) peak in 2023.

The report attributes the drop to two “twin shocks” being the ban on online betting apps and a consolidation in media rights.

The ban on money gaming apps, introduced in August 2024, came amid concerns over addiction, money laundering, and financial fraud, eliminating one of cricket’s most aggressive advertising sectors. Meanwhile, the Reliance-Disney alliance created an $8.5 billion (₹748 billion) streaming and broadcast giant which reduced competitive bidding pressure and therefore broadcast valuations. Essentially, the premium for IPL rights was suddenly lowered. 

Despite the downturn, analysts say the IPL’s core fundamentals remain strong, with the league continuing to dominate India’s sports economy and attract global attention. However, the report cautions that the IPL must evolve from episodic valuation spikes driven by rights auctions to sustainable long-term growth.

 Future value creation, it said, will depend on diversification of revenue streams, enhanced digital monetization, and the potential entry of global streaming platforms into the Indian sports ecosystem.

2. India is Pushing For a US Trade Deal by November

India and the United States are accelerating trade negotiations with the goal of finalizing a bilateral deal by next month, according to people familiar with the matter. Talks have gained momentum in recent weeks, with most trade issues now resolved, sources said. The remaining sticking point remains India’s purchases of discounted Russian oil, which Washington views as undermining its sanctions regime. 

New Delhi is reportedly preparing a plan that would be mutually acceptable to address the concern, though details remain undisclosed. An Indian delegation is currently in Washington to advance discussions, even as the US government grapples with a shutdown. Officials in New Delhi are optimistic that the two sides can reach an agreement by November, consistent with an earlier target to conclude talks by the fall.

The renewed push follows months of friction after Trump doubled tariffs on Indian goods to 50 percent, penalizing the South Asian nation for its ties with Moscow. Relations began to thaw last month after Trump personally called Modi on his birthday, a gesture that paved the way for resumed negotiations.

Speaking from Egypt earlier this week, Trump described Modi as “a very good friend” and India as “a great country.” Meanwhile, newly appointed US Ambassador Sergio Gor met Modi in New Delhi and posted on X that the bilateral relationship “will only strengthen over the months ahead.”

Trade teams from both countries have held two rounds of talks since September starting first in New Delhi, then in Washington, led by Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal. Both sides characterized the meetings as “positive,” with agreements reached on several long-standing irritants. Key Indian concessions include easing restrictions on genetically modified corn imports, increasing US defense and energy imports, and allowing overall greater access to US agricultural products.

Markets responded positively to the progress. The Indian rupee surged nearly 1 percent on Wednesday, its biggest gain in four months, buoyed by optimism over the talks, central bank support, and regional currency strength following a weaker US dollar.

The strategic calculus for the deal likely extends beyond trade to China. Having reliable partners like India allows the US to build alternative sourcing networks for rare earth exports and regular goods.

3. India Wants Foreigners to Expand the Corporate Bond Market

India’s corporate bond repo market may soon open its doors to foreign investors, trusts, and individuals, as regulators and market participants move to deepen liquidity and broaden access. AMC Repo Clearing, the nation’s only clearing house for corporate bond repos, is in talks with the RBI and SEBI to expand the pool of eligible participants.

A repo allows investors to borrow cash against company bonds as collateral, providing vital short-term funding and liquidity to the financial system. The Indian corporate bond repo market has grown rapidly since gaining a formal clearing infrastructure.

Allowing foreign portfolio investors to participate would make the market more vibrant since they would not have to sell assets to buy further assets such as Indian bonds. Average daily corporate bond volumes have already jumped to $509 million (₹45 billion) this month, up sharply from $118.2 million (₹10.4 billion) a year ago, and could exceed $1.7 billion (₹150 billion) within a year. 

The effort is part of India’s broader campaign to deepen its $600 billion (₹52.8 trillion) corporate bond market, which remains relatively underdeveloped compared to the government bond segment. Mutual funds currently dominate as key lenders to primary dealers and corporations, but policymakers are eager to draw in more institutional and foreign investors.

Authorities have gradually built out the market’s infrastructure and regulatory framework in recent years by allowing investors to sell securities to borrowers on pre-agreed dates and increasing smaller bond sizes to entice retail investors. Smaller improvements include price discovery and enhancing secondary market liquidity. The RBI has also allowed foreign institutions to invest more and more.

See you tomorrow.

Written by Eshaan Chanda & Yash Tibrewal. Edited by Shreyas Sinha.

Sponsor the next newsletter to reach tens of thousands of U.S.-based business-savvy professionals. Reach out to [email protected].

Could your business use expert insights to power growth in India? Reach out to [email protected] for a free introductory call.

Disclaimer: This is not financial advice or recommendation for any investment. The Content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.