📰India’s Corporate Profits See Boost | Daily India Briefing

Today, we discuss India’s corporate earnings breaking out of a sluggish path, with BSE 500 companies seeing a 16.6 percent increase in profits in the quarter ending September.

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Macro

• Trade Minister Piyush Goyal says the country is committed to an equitable US FTA. Goyal said the setbacks holding a deal back were akin to “disagreements within a family”. He also called the process a steady negotiation and that India has to balance the interests of its stakeholders with US demands. 

• Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agarwal says the first tranche of negotiations are completed. The trade deal with the US would start lowering the 50 percent levies by focusing on reciprocal tariffs. Future negotiations will likely focus more on Russian oil and non-tariff trade barriers.

• Indian farmers are increasing acreage by 5 percent aided by rainfall and higher returns. This should ease local wheat prices while permitting limited exports as well. 

• The rupee held firm at 88.6 due to rupee sales from state banks.Most Asian currencies were down 0.1 to 0.4 percent. The rupee was influenced by both portfolio inflows and outflows in addition to state bank flows.

Equities

• Morgan Stanley analysts see Indian stocks beating EM countries by a wide margin in 2026. The prediction is based on a macro thesis and improving the long-environment. Indian indices have underperformed due to the lack of technology companies present in indices whereas other EM countries, full of tech names, have outperformed. MS predicts a 17 percent CAGR for Sensex earnings.

• More Retail, owned by Amazon, has picked advisors for a $300 million (₹26.6 billion) IPO. The food and grocery chain would be valued at $2.5 billion (₹222 billion) while operating 767 stores across 350 cities. 

• The blistering rally of Groww and other tech companies keeps growing the list of Indian billionaires.The 74 percent surge has led to the cofounders becoming billionaires in addition to Lenskart’s founders as well. The preference for consumer-facing firms is also evident with the post-IPO performance with both companies.

Alts

• HFT firms like Graviton are starting to boom, seen with a $135.2 million (₹12 billion) profit this year. There was a 57 percent surge in trading volumes and algo/quant-driven trades now represent up to 60 percent of total derivative volumes in the country. 

• Byju's used shell companies to hide $506 million (₹44.9 billion) from US lenders. The now-bankrupt Indian education company moved money in-and-out of a UK logistics company. Byju’s has been facing Chapter 11 in the US, but shell companies and hidden money has led to little results for lenders. 

• UPL, a producer of agrochemicals and seeds, is committed to expanding in Brazil. UPL has a market share of 10 percent and is investing further in conventional herbicides and insecticides. It derives 40 percent of its sales from Latin America, though a breakdown for Brazil is not available. 

• The CERC said non-compliance with low and high voltage requirements for green projects will lead to disconnection.In the past, non-compliance had caused generation losses and frequency dips during fault events. Only two generators, including an Adani hybrid project, have fully satisfied compliance checks.

Policy

• Environment Minister Bhupender Yadav says richer nations should move faster on emissions and clean tech. Speaking at the COP30 summit in Brazil, Yadav argued that developing nations still need more help to achieve scale in reducing pollution.

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India’s Corporate Profits See Boost

India’s corporate earnings are finally breaking out of the sluggish patch that defined much of the last year. Profit growth across the BSE 500 surged to 16.6 percent in the September quarter, up sharply from 10.7 percent in June and reversing a small contraction a year earlier. Brokerages are now openly turning bullish on the second half, arguing that the earnings recovery is gaining both breadth and momentum.

The macro backdrop has shifted meaningfully. Inflation collapsed to a record-low 0.25 percent in October, helped by a steep drop in food prices and sweeping tax cuts on consumer goods. That combination has revived real purchasing power just as the early festive season signaled a stronger rebound in discretionary spending. With expectations firming for a December rate cut and additional monetary support into early 2026, the policy environment is directly complementing the consumption recovery.

Stable tax collections and firmer credit growth have kept Indian equities grinding higher, pushing the Nifty 50 to within 1 percent of its record high and keeping forward valuations near 21.2x earnings. Mid-caps hit all-time highs in mid-November, while small-caps lag due to higher earnings misses. The variance in earnings by company size is a sign that dispersion remains but the overall picture is rising. 

The sector split explains the acceleration. Oil marketing companies, telecom, metals, technology, NBFCs, cement, and capital goods delivered the bulk of upside surprise. Autos and large banks dragged on the aggregate, weighed down by Tata Motors and uneven loan growth dynamics. The five heavyweights Bharti, Tata Steel, HDFC Bank, Reliance, and TCS accounted for most of the Nifty 50’s profit expansion, reinforcing how concentrated the index’s earnings drivers remain.

Breadth, however, is quietly improving. Nearly half of MSCI India constituents beat profit expectations in the September quarter, with revenue and earnings up 8 percent and 9 percent y-o-y. About 40 percent of Nifty companies beat estimates, while 28 percent missed. Jefferies noted that early festive demand pushed revenue growth for companies under its coverage to a 10-quarter high, and lending financials showed a clear rebound as credit appetite returned.

With consumption stabilizing, inflation undershooting, and policy poised to ease, brokerages expect the recovery to extend into next year. JPM’s analysts see “accelerated double-digit growth” through the second half of FY26 and into FY27. If inflation stays this low for another month and the RBI delivers its expected December cut, India’s corporate earnings cycle may just be entering its strongest run since the post-pandemic rebound.

See you tomorrow.

Written by Yash Tibrewal. Edited by Shreyas Sinha.

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