📰Dual Explosions Threaten Peace | Daily India Briefing

Today, we break down dual explosions in India and Pakistan that threaten the fragile peace between the two countries.

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Macro

• Trump says he will reduce tariffs "at some point" and that India and the US are close to a deal. Since yesterday’s announcement of Trump visiting India, relations continue to thaw with news of the eventual tariff reduction. Further details are not available, though Sergio Gor was just appointed American ambassador to India, is already friendly with Modi. 

• Indian oil refiners are scaling back Russian imports, with 5 firms avoiding any imports at all. The big 5 have accounted for 67 percent of Russian imports in 2025, and the lack of imports is likely due to the impending US FTA. Refiners are also avoiding the $4 (₹356) discount on Russian barrels due to the large amount of due diligence required before purchasing. 

• ING expects a rupee rebound to 87 with improving trade talks. That would be a 2 percent strengthening from current levels. Economists made the prediction based on REER models, which measure how currencies are relatively worth to each other based on domestic goods’ prices. The rupee has been one of the worst-performing currencies in Asia throughout 2025.

Equities

• Warburg Pincus is looking to exit Truhome Finance with a $300 million (₹26.7 billion) Indian IPO. The shadow lender (previously known as Shriram Finance) would be valued at $1 billion (₹89 billion). The firm focuses on affordable housing loans with assets now worth $2.2 billion (₹200 billion). 

• Neuberg Diagnostics is eyeing a $350 million (₹31.2 billion) IPO in 2026. The company focuses on clinical laboratory-testing. It's riding a wave of rapid growth in the healthcare space in India, with the diagnostics market expected to be worth $26.7 billion (₹2.4 trillion) by 2033. 

• Adani plans a 1,100 MW energy storage facility in western India.The facility would help alleviate transmission issues in India which arise due to limited storage especially for clean sources like solar and wind.

Alts

• Policy shifts will make India miss 2030 green hydrogen goals of 5 million tons. There will likely be 3 million tons at that point due to Indian suppliers cutting production to avoid global prices from collapsing. 

• India gets a second China+1 opportunity with a $370 million (₹32.9 billion) investment from Ford. India has stood out from the rest of SE Asia by building up its own indigenous industrial system independent of China making manufacturers choose India over smaller competitors. 

• New Delhi is imposing stronger anti-pollution measures after sweeping protests earlier today. The measures include shutting down all non-essential construction, halting stone crushers and mining operations, and moving schools online.

Policy

• Bihar's exit polls show the BJP winning a majority in local elections helping Modi shore up domestic support after a tough year. Beyond tariffs and conflicts, Modi has faced a growing opposition party throughout 2025. Bihar makes up 40 out of the 543 Parliament seats. 

• Modi is vowing to punish perpetrators behind the Delhi bombings.He is currently in Bhutan but spoke about his plan during a speech there. There are high alerts in several states and all authorities are looking for accomplices of the suicide bomber.

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Dual Explosions Threaten Peace in India and Pakistan

Twin explosions in New Delhi and Islamabad within a day of each other have left at least 20 dead and dozens wounded, stoking fears of renewed hostilities between South Asia’s two nuclear powers. One outside India’s historic Red Fort on Monday evening, the other at a courthouse in Pakistan’s capital on Tuesday, have unfolded against a backdrop of rising mistrust and recent military skirmishes.

In New Delhi, a car pulled up at a traffic light near the Red Fort before detonating, engulfing nearby vehicles in flames and sending shockwaves through the heart of the capital. Indian officials said the car’s owner, a resident of Kashmir, was inside at the time and is suspected to have been the bomber. The government has handed the probe to its top anti-terror agency, while Modi vowed to punish the “conspirators” but refrained from labeling the explosion an act of terrorism or naming any suspects.

Barely 24 hours later, a suicide bomber in Islamabad blew himself up outside a crowded court complex after being denied entry. Pakistani authorities quickly accused India of orchestrating the attack from Afghan territory. New Delhi has not responded to this charge, it being one that fits a familiar pattern of reciprocal blame following major security incidents. Despite Islamabad’s accusations, the Pakistani Taliban offshoot Jamaat-ul-Ahrar claimed responsibility.

The twin blasts come just months after the deadliest confrontation between India and Pakistan in decades. In May, the two militaries exchanged missile and drone strikes following the killing of Indian tourists in Kashmir, an episode that rekindled memories of their wars in 1965, 1971 and 1999. Analysts warn that the latest attacks could reignite that volatility citing that there is still a warhawk appetite in India given the success of the previous campaign in May. 

Markets reflected the anxiety. Pakistan’s main stock index slid 2.4 percent on Tuesday, hitting its lowest in nearly a month. Both governments have launched parallel investigations, each promising to bring the perpetrators to justice. But with tensions running high and accusations already flying, the danger is that these blasts become another flashpoint in a rivalry that has defied diplomacy for decades.

See you tomorrow.

Written by Yash Tibrewal. Edited by Shreyas Sinha.

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