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Canadian PM Carney and Modi pledged to deepen cooperation during Carney’s first official visit to India, a substantial move for both countries trying to circumvent American influence. We explain what comes next in today’s deep dive.
And, Samosa Capital’s February Research Report is here. To learn more about one of the pillars of global pharma supply chains, Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories, download our most recent investment research report.
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Macro
Indians should not see oil prices spike due to the buffer oil companies have built up in supply. Firms should be able to keep oil and diesel prices flat due to the discounted purchases India has benefitted from since 2022. The increased supplies should last at least 2 weeks; the risk is if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed after that.
Policy rates will remain level or perhaps drift lower according to Governor Malhotra. He said this right before the US bombed Iran, though supply shocks could cause more rampant inflation.
Equities
Indian stocks slipped 1.2 percent to its lowest level since tariffs were reversed due to the Iran conflict. The sharp spike in oil prices — 12 percent — is causing a selloff across Indian assets. Engineering firms which are reliant on oil had a sharper downturn with L&T falling 5 percent and rival KEC International also sustaining a 3.5 percent loss.
India's airlines are hard hit due to airport closures in the Middle East. At least 350 flights were cancelled on Sunday; not only are flights to the region cancelled, but anything flying over as well. Air India Express has 60 percent exposure — full-service is 8 percent — to the Middle East, IndiGo 41 percent, and SpiceJet’s international routes are fully exposed. SpiceJet fell 9 percent and Indigo 8 percent.
Alts
Canadian firm Cameco signed a $1.9 billion (₹172.9 billion) uranium supply deal with the government of India. They will supply 22 million pounds of the fuel to India from 2027 through 2035. The two nations also agreed to cooperate in energy including LNG, critical minerals, and renewables.
Nirmal Jain plans to double his wealth management AUM to $13.2 billion (₹1.2 trillion).IIFL Capital Services has hired 60 managers and plans to add another 120 in the next year, even when wealth managers are becoming more and more expensive. Fairfax, the Toronto based investment firm, is a major backer of IIFL.
Policy
Modi is getting backlash over his trip to Israel right before the Iranian conflict. Opposition parties are saying that the visit gave the perception of “partisan alignment and tacit endorsement”. Immediate concerns for the government are the 9 million Indians that work in Gulf states and the impending oil price spike.
Samosa Capital’s February Investment Research report is here!
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This month, we discuss Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (NYSE: RDY), a massive player in the global pharmaceutical supply chain, and a pillar of India’s drug production industry.
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Canada-India Strengthen Ties, Circumvent U.S.
Canadian PM Carney and Modi pledged to deepen cooperation in trade, energy, and supply chains during Carney’s first official visit to India. The visit marks the first by a Canadian prime minister in eight years and represents one of the clearest steps yet toward rebuilding ties that deteriorated sharply beginning in 2023.
Among the headline announcements was a $1.9 billion (₹172.9 billion) agreement to expand Canada’s uranium shipments to India for civilian nuclear energy. Under the deal, Cameco will supply nearly 22 million pounds of uranium through 2035, reinforcing India’s efforts to scale up nuclear generation as part of its long-term energy transition. The two sides also finalized the terms of reference for a broader trade agreement, underscoring a shared ambition to diversify commercial ties and reduce reliance on the US market. Officials said they expect a future deal could double bilateral trade to about $50 billion (₹4.6 trillion) by the end of the decade.
Carney described the moment as the start of “a new era of partnership” that would create generational opportunities for businesses and workers in both countries. Modi said the priority was to unlock the full economic potential of the relationship, calling India and Canada natural partners in technology and innovation. Carney extended an invitation for Modi to visit Canada, which was accepted, though no timeline was announced.
The rapprochement follows a prolonged period of tension under former PM Justin Trudeau, who accused India of involvement in the killing of a Sikh activist on Canadian soil. India denied the allegations, and relations froze. Over the past year, however, both governments have worked to quietly restore dialogue and revive economic engagement, especially under Carney.
The diplomatic reset comes when both nations are recalibrating their global political strategies. India is broadening its partnerships while Canada is growing its Indo-Pacific strategy to reduce over-dependence on the US. Agreements announced during the visit also include cooperation on critical minerals, energy supplies, and education, reflecting a broader push to anchor the relationship in long-term strategic sectors rather than episodic diplomacy.
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Written by Yash Tibrewal. Edited by Shreyas Sinha.
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