📰2025 Closed Off w/ Major Dealmaking | Daily India Briefing

The tail end of 2025 was filled with new deals between companies, led by PE firm Advent International and Goldman Sachs stitching mergers between companies they had backed. Today, we update you on the major deals you don’t want to miss out on.

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Macro

• India's FX reserves logged their largest drop in 14 months due to the RBI rupee defense. Reserves fell by $9.9 billion (₹892 billion) to $552 billion (₹49.7 trillion) at the beginning of the year. Most of the drop is from dollar-selling but some is from the revaluation of reserves due to strengthening US yields and dollars. 

• Former Chief Economic Advisor Subramanian is worried about GDP growth. While he noticed the 7.4 percent FY prediction, he is worried about foreign capital flight. Subramanian would be surprised if the next FY had 7.4 percent growth without policy changes and free trade agreements. 

• Tax cuts and deregulation are boosting interest in India but tariffs are still wasting the 'China+1' opportunity. Tax cuts and industry deregulation is attracting foreign investors and firms to India, but manufacturing is still declining seen with slowing consumption of steel and energy.

Equities

• Reliance shares lose $15 billion (₹1.4 trillion) in market cap due to a 6 percent selloff. There are still concerns about Russian oil purchases. Pressure grows with India’s largest retailers flagging weaker-than-expected consumer demand. It will take earnings to sweep aside negative sentiment, with Reliance set to release on January 16th. 

• India caps Vodafone Idea's yearly spectrum repayments to just $13.8 million (₹1.2 billion) for the next 9 years. This is a lifeline for the company and investors leading to shares jumping 9 percent. Vodafone might still owe dues after 2035, but in the near term (given that Vodafone has not been profitable since 2016) this is a breath of relief for shareholders. This likely is also a peace offering to UK PM Starmer. 

Alts

• The 200,000 workers who struck against quick-commerce are likely still stuck. Apps require drivers to have their own transportation and fuel but can suspend membership to the app at any time. The massive supply of potential drivers makes strikes and voluntarily leaving a platform have no permanence or effect on the system.  

• The NaBFID is entering into swaps with banks to protect falling profits. The RBI cut by 125 basis points and the NaBFID’s deals involve borrowing at a fixed rate but lending at a floating one resetting each year. Its borrowers are now paying it less than the interest it owes. Loans disbursed are at $10.1 billion (₹911.9 billion), up 21 percent from 1Q25, and its derivatives book is worth $5.2 billion (₹470.5 billion).

Policy

• Germany and India are close to signing a $8 billion (₹720.8 billion) submarine manufacturing agreement. This would be the largest defense deal signed by India and would see an Indian company and German company cooperate on creation. This would help replace the aging Russian submarine fleet India currently operates. 

• SEBI alleges that BofA employees shared MNPI with other colleagues about block trades from 2024. Employees may have shared material information with workers not involved in the deal. BofA also is accused of providing incomplete information for when SEBI first inquired. 

• Lutnick blames Modi for not calling Trump last year which is now stalling a trade deal. He said that there was an expectation that India would be signed before Vietnam or Indonesia (so mid-2025) and Modi was given 3 weeks to call Trump to solidify a deal. Indian spokespeople said the claims are unfounded and that Modi and Trump spoke 8 times in 2025.  

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2025 Closed Off w/ Major Dealmaking

Quick-commerce, an e-commerce model focused on ultra-fast delivery, typically within 10 to 60 minutes, is starting to slow down as the human cost of delivering anything and everything starts to rise. Just a week ago, more than 200,000 drivers staged a flash strike to demand fair pay, safer working conditions, and an end to 10-minute delivery targets. While global peers like Buyk, Joker, and Getir all failed in the US, Blinkit, Swiggy, and Zepto are still growing in India through dark stores. Traditional retailers and e-commerce giants like Reliance, Amazon, and Flipkart are now rushing to build similar networks; the total number of dark stores will likely triple to 7,500 by 2030. 

Platforms currently push riders to engage in risky behavior on unsafe roads while workers complain about the hazardous pollution in megacities like Delhi. Investors have also been thrown off since mid-October when new labor codes brought up the issue of social security and benefits provided to quick-commerce workers. Swiggy and Eternal shares have fallen around 20 percent while the Nifty 50 has remained stable. The flash strike helps show the problems employees have faced and the one that investors and boards are now seeing. 

The response from executives has been to downplay the disruptions. Blinkit CEO Goyal claimed that riders average just a 2 kilometer drive at 16 kilometers per hour. Insurance premiums are also covered with average earnings reaching $233 (₹21,000) per month for someone working ten hours a day for 26 days. More investigation reveals that the average worker does not achieve these hours with typical annual participation equivalent to just 38 working days and only 2.3 percent of riders doing more than 250 days. 

While the consumer-facing side of quick commerce has embraced capitalism, the delivery workforce remains precarious, bearing costs for vehicles, fuel, and maintenance without guarantees of consistent income or job security. By 2030, India’s gig economy is projected to reach 23.5 million people, tripling over a decade. Comparisons with China suggest that the pressures of balancing earnings targets and worker welfare are not unique but global, and the ultimate solution rests with government intervention. Without regulatory safeguards, the promise of convenience for consumers comes at the risk of perpetuating insecure conditions for the very workers who make the system function.

See you tomorrow.

Written by Yash Tibrewal. Edited by Shreyas Sinha.

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